UFC 326 is headlined by the BMF title rematch: Charles Oliveira vs Max Holloway. It’s the highest-level lightweight fight we’re getting for a while. Both are former champions, both have evolved since their first meeting in 2015 — and the path to victory for Charles is clearer than the odds might suggest.
The one place Max Holloway can’t run: the clinch. Charles Oliveira wins this rematch by making the fight unavoidable there. Pressure, clinch strikes, and opportunistic grappling. Here’s the technical blueprint.
Why the Clinch Is Charles’s Path to Victory
Charles isn’t a subtle fighter. His strengths are obvious: he’s one of the best submission artists in UFC history, he’s improved his takedowns dramatically (body locks, singles, doubles), and he’s versatile in the clinch — plum for knees to the head and body, jumping guillotines, dirty boxing, and perhaps most importantly, big right hands and left hooks as his opponents exit the pocket. He has great awareness with collar ties and he’s always consistent with them. That’s the tool that gave him success against strikers like Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, and even Ilia Topuria.
Justin Gaethje already showed the blueprint. Charles does it better. In the Gaethje–Holloway fight, round four: Max finished a combination and started moving to his right to circle back to center. Gaethje threw up the lead hand to bait a ducking reaction. Max bit and tried to throw an uppercut — but Gaethje’s real intention was to reach for the collar tie with the left hand. As Justin rose, he had the connection, and he landed a perfect right hook behind Max’s ear. Max dropped. The sequence was clinch-adjacent, hand-fighting, and a single read. Charles does the exact same thing: he reaches with the left for the collar tie and lets the right hand fly.
Charles’s Clinch Weapons
- Plum (double collar tie) — Knees to the head and body; Max was oddly susceptible to knees from a post–hip replacement Dustin Poirier
- Exit hooks — Right hand and left hook as opponents break away; Charles lands these consistently against better boxers
- Collar-tie range — Lets him judge distance and feel the connection before throwing; Max tends to search for hand contact to gauge range, which plays into Charles’s clinch entries
Max’s style is built around preventing pressure. Charles’s style is all about creating pressure, panic, and chaos. — The stylistic clash at the heart of UFC 326
Pressure and Footwork: Why Max Struggles When He Can’t Run
Max Holloway is one of the best movers at 155 — consistent footwork, distance management, urgent to get back to center. He rarely lets himself get planted on the cage. But when he is pressured backward, the pattern is clear: he gets hit. Gaethje had success in round four when he turned up the pressure. Dustin Poirier had much of his success moving forward. Ilia’s pressure led to the finish.
Charles, meanwhile, exerts constant forward pressure. He walked down Gaethje and Poirier. He bullied Arman Tsarukyan in the rematch. In every recent fight except the one where Tsarukyan took him down first, Charles has initiated a grappling sequence in round one — whether by takedown, body lock, or guard pull.
The 2015 Fight and What Charles Must Do Differently
In their first fight, Charles did get the plum and a good knee to the body; Max showed good hustle to break away. But the biggest lesson is a single moment: Charles shot a double from a diagonal angle. Max dug an underhook. Because Charles’s pressure wasn’t driving directly into the cage, Max could plant his feet and use the underhook to push Charles up and to the left.
2015 taught one lesson: Charles can’t shoot from a diagonal. He has to drive Max to the cage. Front kicks, pressure, and cage geography. When Charles’s forward pressure goes straight into the fence, Max can’t shrug the takedown with an underhook the same way.
Striking on the Way In: Front Kicks, Leg Kicks, and Not Staying at Boxing Range
Charles has sharp linear attacks — straight crosses, front kicks, knees, uppercuts. He’s good at occupying the center line. The plan should be clear: use front kicks and clinch strikes to wear on Max and eventually force a mistake that opens a submission opportunity.
What Charles Must Do on the Feet
- Front kicks — Control range and disrupt Max’s rhythm; Max has a tendency to “get the center back” after eating a front kick
- Level changes and feints — Keep Max guessing, set up takedowns when Max’s back is near the cage
- Avoid long exchanges at boxing range — Charles’s defense won’t hold up; the recovery time he gets is in the clinch and on the mat
Max’s Vulnerabilities: Chin, Grappling Unknown, and Pressure
Max’s chin isn’t what it was. Since the Ilia fight, he’s been dropped by Poirier. Charles doesn’t need to be faster than Max; he needs to survive on the feet long enough to close in, get the clinch or a takedown, and then either hurt Max in the clinch or submit him on the ground.
On the mat, Max is an unknown against this level of grappler. Charles is the most accomplished submission artist in the sport. If Charles gets the fight to the floor, there’s no guarantee Max matches him in strength or skill.
Prediction: Hurt in the Clinch, Then Finish
The clinch is unavoidable for Max in this matchup. Charles will find it. And when he does, the threat isn’t just the takedown — it’s the strikes. A big knee, a right hook like the one Gaethje used to drop Max, or a shot as Max exits the clinch. Once Max is hurt, Charles is a more reliable finisher than Gaethje or Poirier.
So the pick: Charles Oliveira — by hurting Max in the clinch (knee or hook on the exit), then swarming and submitting him. The path is clear: pressure, front kicks, cage-cutting, clinch, and either damage there or a takedown and finish on the ground.
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