Manny lost the first fight on the cards. To flip the result in the rematch on September 19, 2026 (Sphere, Las Vegas, Netflix), he doesn’t need to become a different fighter — he needs to change how he applies his identity. The game plan Roach and his team had for 2015 was largely the right one; we just didn’t see it in the ring. Here’s what went wrong, what the experts said Manny needed then, and what has to show up this time: footwork, ring-cutting, right hand, and the willingness to take one to give one.
What Went Wrong in Fight One
Pacquiao threw 429 punches and landed 81 (19%). He barely used his jab — 18 jabs in 12 rounds, a historically low number. His right hand was limited by the shoulder injury; Bob Arum later said he “didn’t throw one right hook.” He couldn’t sustain pressure or force Floyd to fight in the phone booth. So Floyd controlled distance, landed the cleaner shots, and won on effective aggression and ring generalship. Tactical post-mortems (Bad Left Hook, [BLOG-RESEARCH-DUMP-FULL.md]) spell it out: rounds 1–3 Manny didn’t cut the ring and followed Floyd in a line. Round 4 was what he needed more of — ropes, combination, left, body — but he didn’t build on it. Rounds 5–6 he still wasn’t consistent with the right hand; footwork was mostly straight in and out. Round 8: Floyd’s right hand changed the fight and Manny never really threatened again. Rounds 9–12 he needed a knockout and didn’t come close — no plan B, no sustained body attack, no sustained pressure. So the adjustments aren’t a guess; they’re the same ones his corner wanted in 2015, executed this time with a healthy right hand and a different mentality.
Move Right, Not Left
Freddie Roach stressed this before the first fight (SI): move right to stay off Floyd’s “piston-rod” right hand. Manny’s instinct was to move left (away from the hook), which played straight into Floyd’s lead right and check hook. Roach also saw Floyd’s long jab to the body creating openings for counter shots — the difficulty was persuading Manny to “take the shot to give back a bigger one.” When onlookers barked in Tagalog in the gym, Roach reportedly said: “They better be telling him what I am. I’m not f------ around here.” In the rematch, footwork that goes right and cuts the ring — instead of following Floyd straight back — is essential. Roach has always said there’s a “science to fighting southpaws and righties” and that “footwork is very important”; against Floyd it’s decisive. As he moves that way, you move that way and stay within reach of hitting him. In 2015 Manny didn’t; in 2026 he has to.
Cut the Ring and Take One to Give One
Roach also wanted Manny to cut off the ring properly — not just follow Floyd around the 20-foot ring at the MGM Grand. Cutting the ring is a skill many elite fighters never fully learn; Roach has said that even De La Hoya didn’t master it. The “dance between elite athletes before they throw a punch” often decides the fight. And Roach saw a specific opening: Floyd’s long jab to the body. If Manny was willing to “take one to give one,” he could answer with something bigger. The hard part was getting Manny to accept that trade. In the rematch, consistent ring-cutting and selective, hard countering when Floyd commits could win rounds. Don’t follow in a straight line; don’t overthink. Stay disciplined so Floyd can’t counter for free — and when Floyd jabs to the body, make him pay.
Killer Instinct and Right Hand
Roach said the “killer” was still in Manny but had to come out — and that winning on points without chasing the KO was the wrong mindset. “That’s crazy, because one punch can change the fight.” For the rematch, Manny needs to let his right hand go. Healthy this time — he’s said he has no shoulder problem now — and use it to jab, hook, dig to the body, and set up the left. Jab and right hand activity alone would be a huge adjustment from fight one, when Bob Arum said he “didn’t throw one right hook” and the Nevada State Athletic Commission had denied the Toradol shot pre-fight (BBC). The Commission wasn’t aware of the injury until hours before the fight; Pacquiao had checked the wrong box on the medical form. Whatever the rights and wrongs, the tactical takeaway is clear: you can’t beat Floyd with one hand. Body then head, take one to give one, and pressure with purpose so Floyd can’t dictate every exchange.
Summary: The Checklist for the Rematch
What Manny needs in the rematch, distilled from Roach, BLH, and post-fight analysis:
- Cut the ring
- Move right, not left
- Use the right hand
- Don't follow Floyd in a straight line
- Body then head
- Take one to give one
- Don't overthink
- Stay disciplined so Floyd can't counter for free If those show up, we get a different fight. If they don’t, Floyd’s system wins the same way again.
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